El Niño in Galápagos: what it means for your cruise

By David Brito, Galapagos Dana Tours · Mindo, Ecuador · Updated 30 October 2026

Updated 30 October 2026 after NOAA’s 8 October discussion; next update after 12 November.

Changes: 30 October 2026, first version, with NOAA’s discussion of 8 October, NOAA’s weekly update of 26 October, the IRI forecast of 19 October and the Charles Darwin Foundation’s page of 4 September.

An El Niño is under way in the Pacific, and the forecasts say it will be strong through the start of 2027. If you are booking a Galápagos cruise for December 2026 to June 2027, that is worth knowing, but it is not a reason to cancel or postpone. Cruises keep sailing, the islands keep their animals, and in some ways the warm season becomes even warmer and greener. What changes is the sea: warmer, poorer in food, and with consequences for the animals that live on cold water. This guide sets out what the forecasters and the Charles Darwin Foundation say, with their dates, and what that means in practice for your water, your wetsuit, the wildlife, the islands on land and your booking. We update it after each monthly NOAA discussion.

What the forecasts say today

NOAA publishes its next monthly discussion on 12 November 2026, and we will update this page after it. Two cautions when you read the numbers elsewhere. NOAA now measures El Niño with “relative” indices and the IRI with the traditional ones, so the same month can show different figures (for September, NOAA gives +2.1 °C in the central Pacific Niño 3.4 region and the IRI +2.84 °C) without either being wrong. And a forecast of a strong event says how warm the Pacific will be, not what will happen on a given island in a given week: the Charles Darwin Foundation’s own account of the 1982–83 event says that the effect “varies enormously” from one El Niño to the next.

What El Niño changes in Galápagos

In a normal year, the cold, nutrient-rich Humboldt current feeds the islands from June to November, and from December to May the water warms, the sea calms and the rains arrive. El Niño pushes that warm season further: the water gets warmer than usual, the warm and rainy season can last longer, and the cold water that feeds the food chain stays away.

• At sea: the Charles Darwin Foundation explains that with warmer water primary productivity falls, so there is less food for penguins, cormorants, sea lions and large fish. Marine iguanas, which feed on algae, lose weight; the foundation calls them a sign that something is happening in the ocean. Corals are among the most exposed: the foundation estimates that 97% of the archipelago’s coral died in 1982–83.
• On land: rain is good news for plants and many land animals. In 1982–83, the foundation reported that the vegetation grew “extraordinarily lush”, the finches multiplied and the land iguanas were well fed. Heavy rain also has a cost on land: on Floreana it caused the collapse of many petrel nesting burrows.

The last two strong events, 1982–83 and 1997–98, are the ones scientists use as a reference. After each of them the Galápagos penguin population fell by more than 60% (Vargas et al., 2007), and in 1997–98 marine iguana mortality reached up to 90% on some islands (Steinfartz et al., 2007). Those are the worst cases on record, measured over the whole event, and they are not a forecast for 2026–27.

What it means on your cruise

Water and wetsuit

From December to May the water is normally at its warmest and clearest of the year, and an El Niño makes it warmer still. Expect to need less neoprene than usual: a shorty is a sensible default, and many boats carry wetsuits on board. If you feel the cold, still ask for one: you will spend a long time in the water. Our snorkelling guide covers the sites, the seasons and the wetsuit question in detail.

The state of the sea

December to May is normally the calm season, and none of the forecasts we read says that El Niño will make the sea rougher. Whatever the cause, the Galápagos National Park closes visitor sites for a day when the swell is strong: on 9 October 2026 it closed seven land-based sites on Santa Cruz, San Cristóbal and Isabela as a precaution, for that day only. On a cruise, the Park sets each yacht’s itinerary and visitor sites, and the captain or operator may change the order of the visits for safety, weather or sea conditions. If you are prone to seasickness, our seasickness guide explains which cabins and routes help.

Which animals and sites feel it

The animals that depend most on cold water feel El Niño first, and most of them live in the west of the archipelago:

• Galápagos penguins, almost all of them on Fernandina and Isabela. See our penguin guide.
• Flightless cormorants and fur seals, on the same western coasts.
• Marine iguanas, everywhere; they are the species to watch, and our marine iguana guide explains why.
• Sea lions and seabirds: less fish means fewer breeding attempts. In 1982–83 many seabirds left the islands until July or August, and returned in smaller numbers.
• Corals and the reef fish around them, at snorkelling sites.

That does not mean you will not see them: guides know where the animals are feeding, and much of what makes Galápagos special, from giant tortoises to land iguanas and finches, lives on land. Our wildlife calendar shows what to expect in a normal year, month by month.

On land: greener

With the rain the islands turn green, the dry lowlands turn green too, and land birds breed. If you are on a land-based trip or have time in the highlands of Santa Cruz, expect mud on the trails and afternoon downpours. Pack a light rain jacket and shoes that can get wet, and see our packing list.

Month by month, December 2026 to June 2027

The table combines a normal year in each month with what the forecasts say about El Niño for that period. The departures column comes from our live inventory as of October 2026.

The further ahead the month, the less certain the outlook. For April to June, the forecast will change with each monthly update, so check this page again before you pay your balance. For the full picture of the seasons, see the best time to visit Galápagos.

Insurance and a flexible booking

El Niño is one more reason to book carefully, not a reason to stay at home.

• Insurance. Under our Terms, medical and emergency evacuation insurance is a condition of travel, and we recommend at least US$50,000 of evacuation cover. We also strongly recommend cancellation and interruption cover, ideally “cancel for any reason”, bought when you pay your deposit. Because this El Niño is already forecast, ask the insurer in writing whether its policy covers changes or cancellations linked to it. Our travel insurance guide explains what a Galápagos policy needs.
• The free hold. We can hold a cabin, usually for 5 to 7 days, at no cost while you check the forecast and your insurance.
• Our Terms. A deposit of 40% of the total price, or the operator’s deposit if it is higher, and the balance 91 days before departure; inside 91 days you pay the full price. Groups of 5 or more travellers, or 3 or more cabins, pay the balance 120 days before departure. Departures between 20 December and 6 January have their own rules, with a non-refundable deposit of 50%.
• Special fares. Promotional and last-minute fares are paid in full when you book and are non-refundable from that moment. If flexibility matters most to you, choose a regular fare.
• Each yacht’s own conditions. Every operator has its own payment and cancellation conditions, often more flexible than ours. Whenever possible we apply them, openly, and they come in writing with every offer, so you can compare before you choose.
• Itinerary changes. If the Park or the operator changes the visitor sites for safety or the weather, our Terms do not give a refund; if the operator gives a refund or a credit, we pass it on in full. That gap is what travel insurance is for. Our booking guide explains every step.

Browse every departure in our cruise finder or by month from the table above, and ask us about any yacht’s conditions before you hold a cabin.

Frequently asked questions

Is it a good idea to visit Galápagos during El Niño?

Yes. Cruises operate as usual, the water is warm, the islands are green and the land animals do well. The animals that depend on cold water may be fewer or harder to find, and there will be more rain. Book with insurance and read each yacht’s conditions.

When will El Niño 2026–27 end?

NOAA expects a strong to very strong El Niño through January–March 2027. The IRI gives a 92% chance that it lasts into April–June 2027, and sees neutral conditions as the most likely outcome by June–August 2027.

Will my Galápagos cruise be cancelled because of El Niño?

Nothing we have read from the Galápagos National Park or the operators announces cancellations for El Niño. The Park can close a visitor site for a day when the swell is strong, and the captain can change the order of the visits for safety.

Is the water warmer in Galápagos during El Niño?

Yes. In NOAA’s weekly update of 26 October 2026, the sea off Ecuador and northern Peru was 4.4 °C above average. From December to May you will need less neoprene than in a normal year.

Will I still see penguins and marine iguanas?

Probably, but in fewer numbers than in a cold year. Penguins live mostly on Isabela and Fernandina, and the guides know where they feed. Marine iguanas are everywhere; in a strong El Niño they lose weight because their algae grow less.

Does it rain more in Galápagos during El Niño?

Usually, yes. In 1982–83 the rainy season lasted from November to July instead of December to April, and the islands turned unusually green.

Should I buy travel insurance for an El Niño year?

Yes. Medical and evacuation insurance is a condition of travel under our Terms, and we strongly recommend cancellation and interruption cover. Ask the insurer in writing whether the policy covers events linked to this El Niño.

How often is this guide updated?

After each monthly NOAA discussion, published on the second Thursday of the month. The next one is on 12 November 2026.

Related reading

For the seasons in a normal year, read the best time to visit Galápagos and the wildlife calendar; for the months this El Niño covers, start with Galápagos in December and Galápagos in January; and for the practical side, see travel insurance and how to book a cruise.

Sources

• NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion, 8 October 2026 and 11 June 2026
• NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO weekly update, 26 October 2026 (PDF)
• IRI, Columbia University, ENSO forecast, 19 October 2026
• Charles Darwin Foundation, El Niño 2026 in Galápagos, 4 September 2026
• Charles Darwin Foundation, Noticias de Galápagos 39, 1984: the 1982–83 El Niño (PDF) and Robinson and del Pino (eds.), El Niño in the Galápagos Islands: the 1982–1983 event, 1985
• Vargas et al. (2007), the Galápagos penguin and El Niño, Biological Conservation
• Steinfartz et al. (2007), marine iguanas and the 1997–98 El Niño, PLoS ONE
• El Comercio, temporary closure of seven visitor sites, 9 October 2026

Last verified: October 2026